Welcome to another UK Property News Recap, your weekly catch up on the comings and goings within the sector.
The New Year shows signs of hope for those remortgaging and buying as the January “rate” sales kick off. However the general direction of house prices remains mixed with some predicting further single digit falls this year, others stagnation and the outliers growth. For me, I can see the year being made up of three parts: The first confused, the second expectant, the third, busy.
If the country can avoid recession and/or further global conflict; the election, potential Bank of England cuts and rate reversals will be the main influencers for UK Property in 2024. These two elements will motivate and stall buyers and sellers at different times.
If you were hoping for a less dramatic year, 2024 is not the one; buckle up for another rollercoaster of a year.
Nationwide and Halifax HPI for December 2023
To wrap up 2023, Nationwide and Halifax produced their December interpretations on average house prices in the UK.
According to lender Nationwide’s HPI, House “prices” ended the year down 1.8% on last year, making the AVERAGE house price in December 2023, £257,443, 4.5% down from their September 2022 peak.
Price drops varied across England, with East Anglia performing the worst, down 5.2%. Only Northern Ireland and Scotland saw prices prosper, bolstering end of year house price results.
This was echoed with Halifax’s HPI which showed UK average house “prices” increased for the third consecutive month, rising 1.1% in December 2023, regaining some of the year’s earlier AVERAGE losses. Northern Ireland (+4.1) and Scotland (+2.6) did the majority of the heavy growth lifting whilst the South East (-4.5%) continued to see “prices” contract.
House Price Predictions
With every New Year comes a plethora of UK Property predictions for the year. 2024 was no different. The consensus is they will continue to fall, albeit marginally, before regaining some ground by the end of the year.
This year will be about individual timing. Some buyers will move early, keen to bag a bargain with cash or a higher deposit whilst others can’t. Some sellers will have no choice but to sell, whilst others will wait with buyers for election promises and more decisive base rate cuts. Price resilience and corrections will vary, but with possible rate reductions, an election, 1.6m mortgage renewals, wage growth and a potential recession, where they settle….who knows.
Rate Predictions and Discounts
The January rate sale kicked off with HSBC and Halifax reducing their rates early in the hope of winning business from their competitors. Despite being swift off the mark others quickly followed, providing hope for those due to remortgage this year and buyers.
Then the conjecture began again around when the Bank of England would cut rates. Bloomberg economists predicted “a very mild technical recession in the near term” before a rebound in the spring with a quarter point rate cut from the Bank of England as soon as May, ending the year with rates down to 4%.
Over at The Times, they surveyed 41 economists on their take on rates with “45% of respondents predicting that the central bank would lower rates 3 times or more in the coming year.” Two cuts was the most common forecast, while two economist outliers said the Bank would leave the base rate at 5.25%.
Mortgage Approvals November 2023
Lastly, the Bank of England released its Money and Credit report for November 2023.
This showed a willingness by some buyers to get “moving” as net approvals for house purchases rose from 47,900 in October to 50,100 in November.
Net approvals for remortgaging (which only capture remortgaging with a different lender) also increased from 24,000 in October to 27,000.
Though not huge numbers it does show that for some, now is as good a time as any to traverse that ladder if the price and place is right.
And that concludes another UK Property News Recap. Should you have any comments or suggestions, please get in touch here.
